The future of smart tariffs just got complicated

Hi Jonathan, do you think it is possible and If so are Octopus throttling input via our smart meters?

Interesting video John. My Octopus fix ends in August and I'm only paying 3.5p per KWH. I use 97% of off peak electricity. Did you notice that EDF are offering 15p per KWH and export and 6.99p per off peak (11-6am). Octopus know that customers are savvy and will move as soon as it restricts overnight home charging. I doubt they would rock the boat.

It's an interesting move from Octopus. I can see why they've done it, but they've just made the tariff overly complicated - at least they've learnt from last years free energy sessions where they excluded home energy use. I'm all for using electricity when it's cheaper but what they have now is a horrible half way house that doesn't manage the whole property (heating, battery, car etc..). What they really need is a full on intelligent tariff that manages everything (I am well aware that everyone might not like giving up control). I can see a couple of phases here As we move more to electrification demand flexibility will become more of an issue and needs to be managed But the later stage is that grid scale management (batteries, storage etc...) handles this for us the intelligent tariffs will no longer be needed

If an energy supplier can dictate how and when energy is consumed, then the consumer should be able to consume smartly. Only buy from the cheapest supplier in half hour increments. Octopus between 11:30 and midday, EON for the next half hour and so on. True flexible market without one side having full control.

I am on Octopus Agile and while I don't charge my car with a rate as good as Intelligent Go, I do have access to rates considerably cheaper than a standard tariff. I have no intention of moving to a smart EV tariff as I would need to invest in a bigger battery to avoid daytime rates, and as you have pointed out that sort of thing is being phased out anyway. As for a smart dynamic home energy tariff deciding when to fill up my battery and when to avoid expensive electricity, that is what I am doing already on Agile, just as a dumb human. I would be more than happy to give that job over to an energy management system. I am aware there are people who refuse to have a smart meter installed because "They" can turn off your energy, but being on Agile saves me a ridiculous amount of money, £1,200 since last may. That is £100 a month I get to keep in my bank account and doesn't include export income or solar generation savings.

I've just binned octopus for EDF same tariff no 6hr limit for now.

EV chargepoints here have to be certified if used as basis for billing. Most are not and thus the power companies can not use them to calculate charges. They can however use them to calculate discounts to ordinary pricing which is a loophole that can be used to offer cheaper EV charging without giving the whole house a lower rate.

Good video exploring the whys and wherefores of tariffs. The game-changing development on the horizon is bi-directional chargers. They're here now but are set to become the norm within a couple of years. We have 20kWh of storage in the garage which, when carefully managed, is just enough to run the house except in the Nov-Feb period when we need an extra 10-15kWh per day. On the drive we have almost 100kWh of battery storage in the two EVs. Our Zappi is three years old and we'll keep the cars for another couple of years. So in 2028 I'll be looking at replacing cars and charger with V2X capable cars and a bi-directional charger. My only limit then will be the 5kWh inverter. Will I be able to get a 10kWh inverter or can I simply add another 5kWh inverter to the system? Nerd heaven!

I tend to keep an eye on the wholesale and agile price as fairly certain the really low overnight rates of tariffs like go is actually cheaper than they buy the electricity but incentivises the load shift and they can make it back during the day. As you say batteries essentially allow people to buy electricity at lower than market rate and if enough people do it they start losing money overall on that tariff. Batteries will still be useful to save money but suspect this golden era of really low overnight may be coming to an end.

Edf 7hrs 11:30-6:30 8p

Hi Jonathan, been following you for a while now and your content has been really helpful. I have 2 EV’s and have an old solar system without battery and on the Octopus Intelligent go tariff. Price hikes from 🐙 advising they are balancing my usage for the year is getting a bit of a stretch now. Looking at a new solar and battery system along with a heat pump. I have delayed my decision until the announcement from Tesla to see how they will impact the energy market place. I wonder if 🐙 are seeing this coming and positioning themselves for a more competitive market competitor. Reading the initial information on the deals Tesla are going to offer they look like they are going to be very aggressive to capturing market share of the consumer. I’m reading a lot about the Tesla eco system and the benefits to adopting to Tesla this can bring to the consumer and the savings it has the potential to unlock. I would like to see you cover this in a future video to get your thoughts. I will be weighing up the package Tesla have just announced with my other alternatives which I have looked at. Either way we will be moving toward solar, battery storage and heat pump for our home. We just need to decide which system and company to go with. Thanks Lee

I'm 5 months into owning a battery only system. Worried about this

The utility providers should have some battery tariffs anyway.

Seems to me the bigger issue is people who charge batteries at low rate overnight, then discharge to the grid, receiving an export tariff in the process. This is both a cost to the energy suppliers and makes it harder to keep the grid balanced, so surely this will be the first thing that is cut as it will be the simplest thing to do? Or even start charging people to export? As to everything else you mention, well software will be used to try and restrict and limit peoples use (OIG, and similar plans) but software in your home will be used to work around it.

If I’m paying for one unit of electricity, it’s up to me what I use that for. How is it cheaper for a supplier to provide me with one unit to go in my car than it is to go into my battery? Or my dishwasher?

I’ve just had solar and batteries installed. Yesterday was the first time we didn’t take from the grid. No profit for octopus as a result, this isn’t good for a business so they will simply try something else to get the money out of us. I also expect the government to eventually tax us for using our money that’s already taxed to pay for solar and batteries and they will want to earn money from it. It’s got nothing to do with being green, they want money so will come up with ways to get the money.

Hello Jonathon, Thank you for your thoughtful piece. I think you are right in your analysis. It is about energy optimisation. I see a number of perspectives. The first is the commitments made in the CFD prices and the inbuilt link to CPI. It doesn't look to me that alternative energy with the smoothing required either by storage or gas generation is as low as people expect. If the government want us to make these kind of investments - solar, batteries, evs, heat pumps then then it has to make finacial sense for individuals to do it. The complexity that you are talking about can be quite difficult. It will rely on rock solid standards, for example using your cars battery to act as energy storage for the house. The overall house energy management system will also need to be rock solid for general use otherwise it will get a bad press and people will not make the investment in time and money to make it work. I think that it is going to be a slow process and will need more stable standards to protect individual's investments.

It strikes me that with Octopus the rates are generally focused on 'addressing' one aspect rather than taking a holistic view where a customer has implemented most green technology i.e. the combination of solar+battery+ev+heat pump. IOG works best in this case - but it's seen as an EV tariff. Per household, the interplay between the installed technologies, their scale and then the seasons / prevailing weather must make for challenges when coming up with tariffs. I would for example welcome an export rate with time banding (not agile) so that I could dump batteries when standard demand is highest (mirroring that I can buy power when it's cheapest in a block).

In 2022, I took a screen grab of a Octopus Go FAQ asking if you can use the cheap tariff for other stuff. They suggested charging battery, heating water, soaking in your secret hot tub and to quote their answer…’Go nuts’.

I think if I was moving house and starting again I would be looking at an off grid solution with significant solar and batteries and a small generator and doing everything possible to lower the homes demand.